In other words, if LeBron James averaged 27 points per game last year, should we expect him to average 27 per game this year? And what should we expect if he changes teams? It’s helpful to understand how team circumstances can influence a statistic, so I compared each metric’s variability when a player changes teams to when he remains on the same team with similar teammates - in this case, defined as having 85 percent of the same minutes return from the previous season, per Basketball-Reference’s roster continuity calculator. I started by looking at a metric’s stability from year-to-year. iSRS: individual SRS, a dummy metric that multiplies a player’s minutes by his team’s SRS (adjusted point differential).AuPM: Augmented Plus-Minus, designed to mimic APM without play-by-play data.APM: Regularized Adjusted Plus-Minus - often called RAPM.BP BPM: My own version of Box Plus-Minus.BBR BPM: Basketball-Reference’s Box Plus-Minus.
PPG: Points per game, the original player ranker.To investigate this, I grabbed the following metrics for every player-season since 1997 (unless otherwise noted) in attempt to glean value and a deeper understanding of these numbers: Besides feeling like alphabet soup, what do these all-in-one stats really measure, and how valuable are they for player analysis? The first composite stat to really take hold was John Hollinger’s Player Efficiency Rating (PER), which has been followed by further advancements on the box score along with metrics that harness plus-minus data, like ESPN’s Real Plus-Minus (RPM). But something Lebron is doing is making all of his teammates play worse, and something Westbrook is doing might be making his teammates play better.Over the past two decades, single-value basketball metrics have been popping up like weeds. I don't even think Westbrook is contributing more to the team than Lebron. And you know what makes the numbers even crazier? They're sharing almost all of their minutes together! And Westbrook still has such better numbers in the ~10 minutes they're not on the court together.Īnd just to address your point, no, I don't think Westbrook is a better player than Lebron. We're comparing players on the same team, that are playing with the same players, against the same players. That in and of itself isn't that impressive of an amount of games but when you take into account the huge discrepancy in +/- averages (5.5!) it is likely real.įurthermore, we're not comparing people on different teams like you are. That would be ridiculous, just like any stat would be ridiculous if talking about one game. I appreciate your input, but you're wrong. Hi, I am the original poster of the post you are criticizing. I don’t feel too bad about losing as much.ĥ Not calling timeout during the 0-13 run to start the 3rd. Later in the day Wednesday, he watched the second game played by draft hopefuls with Rockets general manager Rafael Stone and coach Ime Udoka.”ģ Does anyone else get tired of seeing people say stuff like “I’m glad charlotte didn’t get number one because they would have fucked up his career”?Ĥ The Miami heat just stole Home court from the Celtics. was asked by the National Basketball Players Association to speak to players at the combine Wednesday. New Post Game Thread Jimmy Butler leads the Heat to a road win in ECF Game 1 over the Celtics with 35/5/7/6 Top Team Subreddit Postsġ This sub after we trade everyone and build around Scottie, and he doesn't immediately average 25/8/8Ģ “Rockets guard Kevin Porter Jr.
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